BIG BOUNCE, FUNDS LONG CORN, DOLLAR & DEMAND
Nov 15
AUDIO COMMENTARY
Grains get nice rebound
Record NOPA crush numbers
Strength in US dollar is weighing on wheat
Effects of dollar & demand
Trade war & Trump
Things to consider when making sales
Basis contracts & options exp
If corn demand isn’t front loaded
Record ethanol production
Funds long 100k corn
Funds follow the trends
Great spot to re-own wheat sales for some
Biggest thing need to be prepared for
What will you do if prices do not rally?
Fund positions from GrainStats below*
Chart breakdowns below*
Listen to today’s audio below
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FUNDS UPDATE
Here are the funds positions from Grainstats.
Make sure you go give them a follow & subscribe to their Twitter (@GrainStats on X). They put out great info all of the time and you can get charts like these anytime new data in the markets is available.
Fund Position (Weekly Change)
Corn: Long 110k (+88k)
Beans: Short -54.5k (+15.5k)
Wheat SRW: Short -45k (-14.5k)
Wheat HRW: Short -25k (-11k)
CHARTS
Dec Corn 🌽
Chart still looks the friendliest.
Got a bounce right in that golden zone we mentioned yesterday.
One day is not a trend. But my first target to re-hedge or make sales for those that need to if $4.39 to $4.46
Jan Beans 🌱
Good bounce today, looks like we are now finding resistance at that key volume area around $10.00
Still need to hold those $9.76 lows.
Until I feel confident we are making another move higher, I do not have another target to take risk off the table yet.
Dec Wheat 🌾
We broke the key $5.65 support. So that opened the flood gates to quick heavy selling. As I mentioned there was little support beneath if it broke.
Good bounce today, but good chance it was just a relief bounce.
The indicators were well over cooked to the downside (next chart).
Wheat is still very oversold here, so I could see this bounce going a little higher.
Longer term, wheat fundamentals are friendly and there’s plenty of potential. But the technicals still look very ugly today.
Currently stuck in this downward channel. A break out would a good step in the right direction.
The stochastics and RSI are completely bottomed out.
This is a sign that this bounce could go a little higher.
Dec KC 🌾
Just like Chicago, watching this channel.
Past Sell or Protection Signals
We recently incorporated these. Here are our past signals.
Oct 2nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $6.12 target
Sep 30th: 🌽
Corn protection signal at $4.23-26
Sep 27th: 🌱
Soybean sell & protection signal at $10.65
Sep 13th: 🌾
Wheat sell signal at $5.98
May 22nd: 🌾
Wheat sell signal when wheat traded +$7.00
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